The West is Back
Israel and Ukraine Lead the Way
On October 8th, 2023, with Israel reeling from the worst atrocity against the Jewish people since the Holocaust, it was easy to survey the world and find evidence for the thesis that the West was in decline. Ukraine was bogged down in its war of attrition against Russia. America and Europe seemed beset by internal challenges. Shortly thereafter, the American navy found itself struggling in the Red Sea to deal with the Houthi pirates, who were successfully attacking commercial ships (except Chinese ships) from all over the world, forcing many companies to redirect their supply chains to avoid that part of the world entirely.
Today, with the Houthis dramatically subdued, Hamas all but destroyed, Hezbollah permanently crippled, Bashar al-Assad toppled, and Iran suffering perhaps its greatest defeat since the overthrow of the Shah, the world looks very different. The West still has its challenges. But its enemies have suffered major setbacks and we can begin to see the outlines of a better future for the Middle East, long the world's basket case.
Earlier this month, Ukraine managed to destroy roughly a third of Russia's strategic bomber fleet in a surprising drone attack. Russia currently has no ability to replace these planes, which haven't been manufactured in decades. These drones were smuggled into Russia in trucks and activated deep enough in Russian territory to catch the Kremlin off guard. The planes were sitting out on undefended airstrips, because nobody expected an attack that far behind the lines of battle. World governments are reassessing the safety of their own fleets in an era when small drone swarms can be smuggled almost anywhere and activated from hundreds of miles away.
It turned out that Israel had a similar trick up its sleeve, for when the IDF launched its devastating attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran last week, it turned out they had secret drone bases inside Iran capable of similar destruction. Combined with an air assault on the locations of Iran's centrifuges, the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders, and other clandestine operations which rival only the Lebanon pager attacks of last year in audacity, Israeli drones attacked the Iranian nuclear program, ballistic missile launchers, and air defense systems. Israel quickly established air superiority and has been refueling its bombers over Syria (indicating Iran is incapable of bringing them down). As of this writing, Israel hasn't lost a single pilot or aircraft. While Iran has responded with ballistic missiles, most of these have been shot down by American or Israeli missile defense systems (although a few have gotten through, resulting in some Israeli civilian casualties).
As of this writing, the big question is whether the United States will assist in destroying the Fordow nuclear enrichment site, which is buried so deep underground only the United States has the ordinance capable of hitting it. But even if Fordow remains, the Iranian nuclear program will have been dealt a near-crippling blow. According to some reports, all of the centrifuges at Natanz nuclear site have been destroyed. Numerous senior officials in Iranian intelligence and the Iranian military have been assassinated, Israel has proven its ability to act with impunity within Iran and Iran has been unable to mount a proportionate response. Iranian leaders and military officials are on the run (literally, some are fleeing their command posts) and Iranian citizens are evacuating Tehran. The Islamic Republic set out to isolate Israel and bring it to its knees with terrorist proxies. Now, Iran is finds itself in an existential crisis, with its ally in Syria deposed, its proxies all but eliminated, and its own nuclear and military capabilities on the verge of annihilation.
Time after time, the Israelis have been beset on all sides by enemies, vilified in the United Nations by the antisemites of the world, denounced as a pariah by the European smart set, and fighting alone against supposedly advanced militaries (Egypt, Iran, etc.). And time after time, they have proven themselves capable of standing alone against all comers. The worst mistake many nations and terrorist groups have ever made was making an enemy of Israel.
The United States has, of course, helped Israel. As we should. At times it seems we are their only friend. But in defeating Iran and its terrorist proxies, it is doing the West's heavy lifting on behalf of us all. America may have withdrawn from Afghanistan, but the War on Terror never ended. It will only end when the sponsors of terror have been eliminated, and when all those who desire "Death to America" are dead. This starts with the Iranian regime, one of the most nagging thorns in America's side since 1979, and the source (alongside Saddam Hussein and Assad) of most of the instability in the Middle East during that time.
​The West has its internal troubles still. But our enemies are being humiliated. Russia proves unable to defeat an impoverished Eastern European country. North Korea remains a backwater. China is watching unfolding events and eyeing Taiwan.
But while we should stay wary, and while we should be concerned about surprise drone attacks within our own borders, the West should celebrate. It has been a good month so far. The sun has not yet set on Western Civilization. If we look around the world today, nobody else can lead in our stead.