I Was Wrong

Reconsidering My Nobel Prize Article

Photo by Mohammed Ibrahim on Unsplash

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Well, less than ten days after I published an article praising Trump’s peace plan, I feel the need to issue a partial retraction. Perhaps this is unsurprising - if anything, the more surprising thing would have been if it had held up and been implemented as described. But I sometimes try to overcorrect for my bias (I tend towards the view that Donald Trump is fairly incompetent) and in doing so overstate my case.

Predictably, Hamas and the IDF have engaged in hostilities again. It looks to me like none of the rest of the peace plan will transpire, although I do think it was an important step to get other Arab nations to tentatively agree to some sort of responsible, post-Hamas future for Gaza. Even if they haven’t committed to taking any action, this is an improvement over what we’ve seen in the past.

I do still think that the return of all the living hostages is huge. That was what prompted me to write the initial piece. I was legitimately shocked. Unsurprisingly, Hamas is being shifty about returning the bodies of the dead hostages. And so it appears that the IDF will continue to fight Hamas terrorists in the Gaza strip for the coming months, even if war is declared “over” and the reservists return home (for those who don’t know, the IDF has been relying on reservists who were called up for the war to supplement its typical numbers) and the fighting is carried on by conscripts (i.e., the young men and women doing their two-or-three-year mandatory conscription).

In my view, this is actually a good outcome, because with the hostages home, the IDF can continue flushing out the remaining terrorists in the Strip and Hamas doesn’t have the same leverage it once had (which was why I never expected them to release all the living hostages). The best hope for the Palestinians is for Israel to destroy the last remnants of Hamas (which is much diminished, even with its numbers bolstered by the prisoners Israel exchanged for the hostages).

But continued hostilities kill Donald Trump’s chances for a Nobel Peace Prize. Admittedly, as I said, it’s a low bar. But I’m not that broken up if he doesn’t get one, either. I was extremely pleased to see that Maria Corina Machado won the prize this year. Well-deserved in my opinion and she certainly deserved it more than Trump.

Additionally, it was suggested by someone on the Call Me Back podcast (I think it was Amit Segal or Nadav Eyal, not Dan Senor, who suggested it) that the deal which allowed the hostages to return home was not in fact crafted by the Trump administration, but by Ron Dermer. Because Hamas would never accept any deal offered by Netanyahu’s administration, Dermer went to the White House and asked if they would take credit for it. Donald Trump, never being one to fail to take credit for things he didn’t do, accepted. And this gave the diplomatic cover which allowed the deal to go through and the hostages to return. Which, perhaps, is all Israel ever hoped to achieve.

This seems plausible. I don’t know if it’s true. I’m back to being relatively unimpressed with Donald Trump and Steve Witkoff and their negotiating skills, although I’m not quite where Kevin Williamson is (even as I often agree with him) in declaring that Trump essentially accomplished nothing and therefore doesn’t deserve any credit for anything. Many commentators I respect (including some of Williamson’s Dispatch colleagues) who are not Trump stans (including the folks at Call Me Back) and many Israelis have been giving Trump some credit. And therefore I don’t think Williamson’s characterization of the affair is entirely fair.

But it is fair to say I was too quick to overstate my case that Trump deserved a Nobel Prize. Do I think he has been very good (much better than I expected) on Israel, much better than many of his predecessors? Yes, I do. As I have said many times, I didn’t vote for Trump. But I do think honesty requires admitting when politicians whom we do not support and whose policies we often oppose get something right.

I was wrong in giving Trump too much credit for resolving an intractable situation which many better negotiators than him have failed to resolve and which has remained predictably intractable (if it has continued to move slowly in something resembling a positive direction). But whoever deserves the credit, I am glad the living hostages are home. Even if the war continues.