Defeat

They Call It A Deal

Photo by Amina Atar on Unsplash

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They say that if you have to eat crow, you should do it quick and eat it all up right at once. Despite my misgivings about President Trump and the fact that I never voted for him, I was enthusiastic about the Iran War as it began and have been optimistic at times that it will turn out for the better. Now it appears to be ending (but already that statement may be dated as shooting has begun again) with an MOU that amounts to American surrender. Whether the war ends with a ceasefire or we go back to war, it’s worth assessing what I got wrong.

So, I was wrong to give Donald Trump any credit for the war with Iran. It may yet be the case that some good comes out of this, or that the ultimate outcome makes everything that happens between now and then worth it. If regime change happens, I think it will have been worth it. However, it will be a case of Trump getting lucky, rather than Trump achieving something real.

I was also wrong to give Trump any credit regarding Israel and Gaza and the hostages, indeed to give him any credit regarding the Middle East at all.

In my defense, I had such low expectations for him—especially after the “wear a suit” meeting with Zelensky—that I was surprised by the success of Midnight Hammer. I was also surprised that Hamas released all the hostages (as I said at the time)—something I never expected them to do. I also pointed out that the Nobel Peace Prize has gone to some truly execrable figures, so when I said last year that Trump deserved the Nobel Peace Prize, it’s not like I said I thought he was qualified to be the president of the United States or anything serious.

At the same time, Midnight Hammer was a success due to the skill and technological advantage of the American and Israeli militaries. It was also short enough that Trump couldn’t screw it up.

At the outset of this war, I hoped desperately that it would move quickly enough that Trump couldn’t screw it up. Again, in my defense, I maintained that—Trump being a moron—he could always screw it up. I worried that if the war went on too long, Trump would lose interest and chicken out, as he appears to be doing now. My hope was that if we achieved victory before Trump had time to lose patience, the war would turn out to be a resounding success.

But Jonah Goldberg said something early on in the war that stayed with me. He has always maintained that the Iranian people deserve regime change and the ayatollah deserved to die. But he said that what would probably happen in the end is that Trump would bug out too soon and people would say that he left too early, not that he prosecuted the war too harshly.

As George Will says, well.

David French also said something early in the war. He said that even when Trump does things you support, you should expect him to bungle the execution so badly—to do it in the wrong way, for the wrong reasons, and with the wrong optics—that you ultimately can’t support it. This seems more apt to me now than it did in February.

I suppose then that any mistakes I made in the last few months were as follows:

• Departing from editorial line of The Dispatch, which as usual has basically been proven right in every stance they’ve taken on the Trump administration.

• Bending over backwards to give Trump credit since I’ve been so hard on him for ten years and haven’t ever voted for him and I get tired of punching the GOP.

• Letting my annoyance at Democrats and NeverTrumpers seeming to root against America in the name of hurting Trump get the better of me. It bothered me that some seemed to root for the Iranians. Others seemed to root simply for American failure. And others seemed too quick to jump on any potential bad news, no matter how difficult to believe, and to downplay any real news about American capabilities and achievements. A similar thing happened with Midnight Hammer last year. The people who wanted it to fail believed it did. Some of the claims they made (Iran will come back 10x stronger) were ridiculous then and are ridiculous now. It really bothers me when someone roots for bad things to happen to America because those bad things will hurt their political opponents. I love America too much—I can’t help rooting for our interests and I hate to see bad things happen to us, even if it means that politicians I don’t like will be able to claim credit or achieve a victory. It bothers me that many Democrats and NeverTrumpers actively root for American humiliation. It bothers me that many on the New Right do the same at times. I get so irrationally angry about this that it clouds my judgement.

I root for my country in war. No matter who the commander in chief is. I rooted for our interests in Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya when Obama was president (and in Iraq and Afghanistan when Bush was president, of course). I rooted for our interests in Syria when Trump was president the first time around. I rooted for our ally Ukraine when Biden was in office (and still do). And when Trump shocked me by going to war with Iran, I wasn’t going to abandon a position I’ve held for years (that we should go to war with Iran) just because I’m no fan of Trump.

Also, as I have said, I was legitimately surprised by how easy most of the war was. Except for the Strait of Hormuz (and we have come to learn just how big of an “except” that is), we dealt out punishing damage to Iran while they did maybe <1% as much damage to us. I had been expecting that they might sink a ship or two and kill a few hundred servicemembers. I wouldn’t have been surprised if they initiated terror attacks on American soil. If you told military planners in 2010 that we could go to war with Iran without losing any ships, they would have been surprised. If you had told Americans in 2002 that we could go to war with Iran without major terror attacks on American soil, they would have been shocked.

I’ll maintain to my grave I think the belief that if Trump had had the will, and been willing to make real sacrifices, we could have opened the Strait. I don’t believe our military is incapable of achieving this. But it would result in casualties. And having started this war without Congressional approval and without warning the public (and being a coward and a lazy man with a short attention span), Trump didn’t have that kind of will.

And so we are where we are. I suppose I owe Barney Quick this: increasingly it’s looking as though he has a point about the folly of calling balls and strikes. I still maintain that it is worth stating for the record where you stand. Such as, “I have always believed America needed to go to war with Iran and still do, no matter who is commander in chief. Our war has successfully degraded their capabilities and destroyed enough infrastructure that they will take a very long time to rebuild their nuclear capabilities if they ever do and they are more vulnerable to regime change now than four years ago.” Or, “I don’t think Trump is a good president and didn’t vote for him, but I’m glad his administration is targeting DEI.” You have to take the bad with the good. We live in the world we live in, and it will always disappoint us in some ways and please us in others.

However, Barney has a point that, given what David French pointed out about Trump screwing up even the things you like, it may not be worth attempting to give him credit on anything. I won’t pretend I don’t believe what I believe (for instance, that Israel is an important ally, or that DEI is a poison, or that reinstating the presidential fitness test was a good thing¹). But going forward, I’m more likely to reflexively oppose this administration and I’ll be wary about any potential good news. Never forget J6 and all that.²

Iran:

I still hope that we will somehow have regime change, whether due to internal collapse or external pressure. I will not stop hoping that. The Iranian regime is the enemy of the American people, the enemy of the Iranian people, the enemy of the Israeli people, the enemy of the people of the Middle East, and one of the single biggest sources of instability and terror in the world. In my view, a collapse of the MOU and a return to war would be a good thing. Or a collapse of the MOU and a return to the blockade.

I’m increasingly pessimistic in the short term, but optimistic in the long term (within my lifetime, I think we will see regime change in Iran). I do think the regime is weaker now than people realize. Perhaps there will be internal revolt, although I’m not holding my breath.

But we do not know what will happen next and I’m not going to pretend I know where any of this is going. No one does. Events change rapidly, and this post may be dated by the time I publish it.

Trump has betrayed the Iranian people and damaged American interests. But what else is new? He betrays everyone. I’m not surprised by the betrayal, and I’m not surprised that he wants a “deal,” and I’m not surprised that he’s chickening out. What shocked me was that he acted at the outset of the war like he cared about the Iranian people. What shocked me was that he went to war at all, and then that it went as well as it did (again, except for the Strait of Hormuz).

The MOU is worse, in my view, than Obama’s nuclear deal because of the optics. It looks like American surrender. It looks like America turning its back on Israel and the Iranian people after raising hopes of regime change. It looks like humiliation.

A part of me wants to say, “What do you expect when J.D. Vance negotiates the deal?” but this is Trump’s deal, not Vance’s. Vice presidents have no power. The buck stops with the president.

I’m not surprised that Vance likes the deal. I think what he likes most about it is that the hawks are upset. Vance is a spiteful man, a man so spiteful I think he would hurt himself if it meant he could see someone he hates in pain. He is the epitome of a man who roots against America to hurt his political enemies. I think at this point that he sees it as a plus that the deal not only makes the hawks mad, but that it harms American material interests and helps our enemies. I think he also thinks it’s a plus that it hurts Israel, especially since he is courting the Tucker and Megyn Kelly wing of the GOP base in hopes of having their support for a 2028 presidential run.

And I think Vance thinks it’s a plus that it hurts Europe and the West generally. The New Right talks a big game about nationalism, and about Western civilization, but they also talk about how America is dead and the West is over, and they have also (especially Vance) often struck me as actively rooting for decline.

That disgusts me. It makes me sick. As I said, it clouds my judgment.

In the case of Vance, he reminds me of the Continental Op’s turncoat partner in Dashiell Hammett’s “106,000 Blood Money.” The Continental Op has his number. He tells the younger man that he knows why he turned traitor. The young man liked to think of himself as a cold character. He liked to think of himself as cold-blooded, able to do what needed to be done in the sordid underground world of crime, not tied down by moral principles.

Vance likes to think of himself as a cold realist. He likes to sneer at anyone who has principles when it comes to foreign policy. He likes to imagine that he is able to cut deals with anyone, to betray anyone, to sell out any idea (all in the name of America’s interests of course). Foreign policy operators for decades on both sides of the aisle have all affirmed some version of this: sometimes America needs to do crappy deals or support bad regimes, because tradeoffs are hard and the world is a tough place.

But Vance takes this to another level, and I think he takes pleasure in what others view as a necessary evil, because I think he thinks it proves how cold and tough he is.

But it doesn’t. He’s a spiteful man.

I hope the MOU falls apart. I’m not sure I’m willing to say that going to war was the wrong decision, even if it ends with Iran controlling the Strait. The ayatollah is dead. Good Americans and good Iranians have been avenged. And (other than the Strait), Iran is weaker than they were before.

I will continue to hope for an outcome which is good for America, even if it helps Trump. But I won’t give Trump any more benefit of the doubt.

1. Oh the irony that it was Donald Trump who oversaw that, and the Obama administration that got rid of it.

2. I’ve said this before, but January 6th and the stolen election lie constitute Trump’s worst political sin. What worries me most about this administration is the potential for a repeat.